! APMonitor Modeling Language ! ! Data from New York for the years 1947-1965 ! Data from Bangkok for the years 1975-1984 ! Data from London is 1944-1966? ! Model disease Parameters ! population size (individuals) N = 3.2e6 ! birth rate (births/biweek/total population) mu = 7.8e-4 ! recovery rate (recoveries/biweek/infectives) gamma = 0.07 ! reporting fraction to account for underreporting rep_frac = 0.45 ! cases reported (new individuals infected per biweek) cases = 180, >= 0 End Parameters Variables ! transmission parameter (potentially infectious contacts/biweek) beta = 10 ! susceptibles (individuals in the total population) S = 0.06*N, >= 0, <= N ! infectives (individuals infected) I = 0.0001*N, >= 0, <= N End Variables Intermediates ! infection rate per biweek R = beta * S * I / N End Intermediates Equations $S = -R + mu * N $I = R - gamma * I cases = rep_frac * R End Equations End Model